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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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