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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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