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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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