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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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