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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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