We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
|
|
|
Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
