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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
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