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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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