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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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