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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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