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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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