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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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