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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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