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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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