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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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