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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
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Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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