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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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