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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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