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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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