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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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