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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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