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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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