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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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