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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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