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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
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Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
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JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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