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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
BHP EYES INDIA FOR COAL GROWTH AS CHINA DEMAND FLATLINES - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Australia’s largest miner, BHP, believes the long-term trajectory of the emerging economy of India and the acceleration of its steelmaking ou ...
Sunday, 05 January 20
BUNKER QUALITY CLAIMS IN 2020 - ISSUES TO CONSIDER - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In recent years the shipping industry has faced a significant number of bunker quality claims, most notably ari ...
Saturday, 04 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A 53,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY INDONESIA TRIP TO CHINA AT $4,000 AND A 58,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP TO THAILAND AT $5,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The New Year started with an erosion on pre-Christmas rates as the higher low sulphur fuel costs due to IMO 2020 affected levels. From ...
Thursday, 02 January 20
DMO 2020 PRICE SET FOR ELECTRICITY SECTOR - IAN WOLLFF
On the 26th December 2019, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued the decree No. 261.K/30.MEM/2019 about the States needs for c ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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