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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 29 December 19
AUSTRALIA SUFFERS WORST OF CHINA'S COAL CURBS AFTER EARLIER BOOM - BLOOMBERG
Australia is bearing the brunt of China’s year-end coal import restrictions, ceding market share to other exporters including Russia and Mong ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasing ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL CITY TO FURTHER CUT COAL CONSUMPTION - XINHUA
Harbin, capital city of Heilongjiang Province in China’s northeastern industrial heartland, is planning to further reduce its coal consumptio ...
Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world ...
Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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