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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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