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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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