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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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