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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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Showing 1481 to 1485 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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