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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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