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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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Showing 1506 to 1510 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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