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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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Showing 1516 to 1520 news of total 6871 |
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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