We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
|
|
|
Showing 1521 to 1525 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
|
| |
| |
|
