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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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