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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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Showing 1536 to 1540 news of total 6871 |
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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