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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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