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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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