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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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