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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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