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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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