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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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