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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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