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Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
 The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly diverged from prices and indices for lower-grade coal, such as the Indonesian Coal Index4 (ICI4), since mid-2018. Fitch Ratings has observed the effect of this in the wider discounts in the coal price realisations of rated Indonesian coal miners compared with the Newcastle 6,000kcal index.
The coal that meets the Newcastle 6,000kcal specifications is generally supplied by a few large Australian miners and consumed mainly in Japan and South Korea. In our opinion, the consolidation of producers of Australian thermal coal has allowed tighter control over supply, resulting in its price movement pulling away from the Chinese Qinghuangdao (QHD) 5,500kcal coal price index and ICI4 benchmark. In contrast, the QHD coal price index to a large extent reflects the domestic production, supply and government policies for coal in China and the exchange rate between the yuan and the US dollar. The Newcastle index's decline in the past few months has been slower than that of the QHD index.
Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China and we expect the QHD index to be a bigger driver of Indonesian low calorific value (CV) coal prices than the more popular Newcastle 6,000kcal index. This is already apparent in the ICI4 index trading at a relatively stable discount of between 50% and 59% since 2015 to the QHD 5,500kcal index, compared to discounts of between 40% and 66% versus the Newcastle 6,000kcal index. The ICI4 index drives the earnings profiles of most Indonesian miners, including the five that are rated by Fitch. The recent weakness in Indonesian coal prices is due to a rise in supply driven by the government's effort to boost its forex reserves and lacklustre domestic demand growth.
Fitch Ratings has factored in the wider spread in its analysis of Indonesian coal companies by using larger discounts to the Newcastle 6000kcal benchmark. Further, Fitch uses mid-cycle commodity price assumptions, given its policy of rating through-the-cycle, which limits the impact of the bigger gap. Our coal price assumptions (Newcastle 600kcal/kg benchmark) used for forecasts are USD79/tonne in 2019, USD77/tonne in 2020 and USD74/tonne thereafter, compared with the current market price of over USD100/tonne. Fitch believes that the bigger discounts of prices for low-to-mid CV coal relative to the Newcastle 6000 kcal price are themselves not likely to affect the credit profiles of Fitch-rated Indonesian coal companies.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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