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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
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Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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