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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
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Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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