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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
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Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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