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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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