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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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