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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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