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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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