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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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