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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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