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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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