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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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