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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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