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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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