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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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