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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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